Don't take disease outbreaks lightly. The media may seem to go obsessive over them, but it's actually very helpful. The "panic" it creates goes a long way to prevent further outbreak.

You see, out of all of the "likely" mass death scenarios (Earthquakes, Supervolcanoes, Meteorites, Nukes, etc) Pandemics are by far the most likely to happen, and cause massive casualties. Traditionally, throughout the last 5000 years or so of recorded history the worst catastrophes have all been pandemics. The black death killed as many as 75-200 million people, in a time when the population was only about 450 million. Other examples include the Plague of Justinian (6th century) which killed almost half of the byzantine empire. and the Spanish Flu, which killed 50-100 million people in 2 years. (World War 1 killed 16 million). The Spanish Flu had also infected over 400 million people. (25% of the human species)

Since then, a lot of scientific advancements have been made, and more sanitary conditions have helped reduce or eliminate many threats. However, some things have changed for the worse. More human contact (direct or indirect), superbugs which have become immune to antibiotics, and rapid transit, allowing people to get from one side of the planet to the other, infecting possibly hundreds in the process who then all go on to infect others.

Not all flues or diseases are fatal immediately. many start fairly harmless, spread, and then mutate. As fast as WHO can respond, it will still take months to research and create vaccines or cures. By scaring the public, they are more likely to cancel travel plans, and avoid contact, or take better precautions by washing their hands more often etc.

As for Flues, they usually start in birds, (in fact, it is possible that the flu virus itself may have been infecting birds all the way back to when they were dinosaurs, evolving along the way. Now birds remain the largest carriers, however some strains have moved onto other animals such as cattle. The Strain which is referred to as "Avian Flu" is H5N1. a particularly virulent strain, containing the some of the properties of the spanish flu "H1N1", but which has yet to mutate into being able to spread from human to human. If it does however, it could be disastrous. This is why every year thousands of birds in farms are destroyed simply to prevent this.

As for the Spanish Flu "H1N1", we thought we had eliminated it (in fact, we did completely destroy all of it, with the exception of a highly secured lab sample or 2), The flu had also mutated into pigs. There it hid for the last century or so, before mutating back to human. It's not quite the same as it used to be, but it still has the potential to become more virulent at any time.

and SARS was not a load of crap Matt. it infected over 8000 people, killing close to 800 (about 9.6% fatality rate, which is very high) 25 or so of those being in Canada. It could have been much worse.

How many people need to die before it becomes a lot Matt? 1? 50? 10 000? All of those people had lives and families, to be able to simply shrug them off as "Not a lot of people" is rediculously cold hearted. All life has value, and those people didn't need to die.

The world is also not fucking overpopulated. Quit spouting off that absurdly false statistic. The country of India alone produces enough food to feed the entire planet. The problem is that not enough methods are taken to store and protect it, and most of it is instead eaten by rats. The world population should stabalize around 11 billion. The population growth of the world is slowing down. As countries modernize and develop, their population growth goes down. In fact, Japan, France, and Germany are all going through crisis because not enough people are being born, and there is in fact negative population growth. First world countries typically have 1-2 children per household, as opposed to third world and developing countries which have dozens. The real problem is that we aren't properly applying our technology to such issues.

Seasonal flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people annually with a fatality rate of less than 0.1 percent. These people are almost always infants, elderly, or severely impoverished. The Spanish flu, and other H1N1 flues create a reaction known as a cytosine storm, which causes the body to attack itself. This results in a significant number of healthy young adults to succumb to the disease.

For example, the following graph lists the mortality rates for normal flu viruses in the years preceding the spanish flu, and then the mortality rate for the spanish flu in 1 year



This flu has a fatality rate of about .4%. This still isn't very much, but this is because it's just the beginning. The fear about this flu is not about it's immediate threat, but the fact that it is extremely prone to mutation (unlike seasonal flues). If the flu mutates with a strain of H5N1, then it will become extremely virulent, and could cause an unimaginable death toll.

Personally, i'm not too worried about this flu, but if it does mutate, then it will give cause to monitor the situation more closely.

honestly Matt, you should decry something when you are so ignorant to the facts.

no Matt, i have put extensive research into many of these issues, i did not pull any numbers out of my ass. And as i said before, the problem is that we aren't properly applying the technology to such issues. Energy needs could be met much more easily if all buildings had solar panels on the roofs. There would be much more housing if we would build upwards as opposed to outwards. Even then, there is still tons of land for humans to occupy. Better recycling and resource management could also be applied to help. These are just a few examples, there are millions of different things. But i am pretty sure that even if you went hundreds, even thousands of years back, to times when there was a 10th the population of today. you'd find people crying about housing problems, and supply issues too.

I understand you hate humans Matt, and to be honest, most of them (of the 6,782,536,522 as of a May 27th estimate by US census bereau). are around because of advances in science and medicine. Advances such as vaccines, developed in response to plagues and disease. These advances have enabled normal people like us to live past the age of 30, if even that far (especially in your case). These advances have brought you all the games and other forms of entertainment you love, and your schooling. They will continue to do so. And most of this wouldn't be possible if we just shrugged off every death like it wasn't important, and didn't work on ways to avoid it.

Your allowed your own opinion, even if i happen to disagree. i'm just explaining my own, and using the facts as a basis for it. I just hope you're not just blatantly disregarding any of it. I also strongly encourage you to do your own researcb.

[qote]I have been. You've taken a considerably different tone since your last post, so either something I said got to you or you were extremely pissed off about something completely different and decided here was a good place to vent. I don't appreciate that. [/quote] What the hell is that supposed to mean? Tone can't even be conveyed over the internet, as you need sound/voice for tone. Don't assume you know what mood i am in either. I'm not here to vent, i'm here to kill time and share my knowledge. I'm not angry or pissed off about anything, and there is no reason for you to bring that up anyways as it has nothing to do with the topic. Usually when people make comments like that in an argument it is an attempt to discredit the opposition as opposed to their argument. I Don't appreciate that. (i kid, it doesn't really bother me that much, just when it comes to politics, and mac commercials and stuff lol)

Either way there is no point in continuing this conversation as we're the only 2 people posting in here at the moment. As much as i enjoy debating with you Matt, i'd rather wait until others post, as i'm curious about other's viewpoints. (i already clearly know yours lol).

Actually Matt, there's been a long time you haven't known me for. In many ways i've changed quite a bit. but i'm getting off topic.

No way dude, communism is red. I'm so communist i even bleed red.

I suppose this is the reason this topic is in citadel rather than trenches. You're right Matt that I may still be mostly the same, but certain events over the past few years have significantly affected me. I can assure you though, Nothing said in this topic really bothered me enough to garner an emotional response. Any time i used swears it was simply to draw attention. Although i will admit, the argument "The Earth is overpopulated" does tend to annoy me. In some regards that may be true, but it is my belief that we have the technology and ability to continue to accommodate growth. I'm not saying that we don't need to make serious changes (in regards to oil, and food, and power etc). But i would much rather work towards that future. It may not be easy, or smooth, but that's why I will do my part, and encourage others to do theirs.